Grey County’s population could grow to 149,000 people by 2051.
That’s according to the county’s new growth management plan, which was prepared by Hemson Consulting and presented to Grey councillors during their committee of the whole meeting Thursday.
The county’s latest census population in 2021 was 105,000 people. The growth management strategy projects intra-provincial migration will primarily be responsible for another 44,000 people calling Grey County home by 2051.
“Most of the population growth will be from the movement of people from other parts of Ontario, mostly to the south, into the county,” Hemson Consulting Associate Partner Stefan Krzeczuowicz told councillors.
The report says population growth in Grey County began to accelerate in 2016, with a particularly strong period between 2017 and 2022. It estimates about 74 per cent of the county’s population from 2016 to 2020 was driven by people relocating from major urban centres elsewhere in the province, especially the Greater Toronto Area.
“Although growth has moderated somewhat in the most recent years, it remains elevated to long-term trends,” the Hemson report says.
The growth management strategy also forecasts communities such as The Blue Mountains, Southgate, Hanover and Owen Sound will experience the largest population increases, due to their urban character and available land supply.
Krzeczuowicz says the expected growth should increase the demand for a broader ranger of housing types in the county moving forward. The report projects total households in Grey County will grow from the 42,350 recorded in 2021, to nearly 61,000 by 2051 — a 44 per cent increase.
“You’re already seeing this with the amazing apartment growth in the City of Owen Sound,” he says.
Grey County’s Senior Policy Planner Liz Buckton says all Grey County municipalities, with the exception of Hanover, have adequate supply of lands to support the anticipated growth in the coming decades.
“But we understand the town’s mutual prosperity work with West Grey will (effectively) address that concern,” Buckton says, referring to the $10-million agreement struck between the two neighbouring municipalities late last year for Hanover to acquire 1,600 acres of land from West Grey.
The report also attempts to project employment growth over the next 25 years. It says Owen Sound is expected to remain Grey County’s largest and primary employment centre with around 17,000 jobs by 2051. In all, there is expected to be about 60,000 jobs in the county by then.
“It’s a slightly slower rate than population growth. And the reason for that is we are still an aging population and that will continue to be the case right through 2051,” Krzeczuowicz told councillors. “There will be a smaller number of people at the end of the period than there are right now. And that’s happening everywhere across the province.”
Grey County’s growth management strategy is updated about every five years.
Owen Sound, Meaford, Georgian Bluffs, Chatsworth, The Blue Mountains, Grey Highlands, West Grey, Hanover and Southgate are the nine member municipalities that make up Grey County.
You can find the full Grey County Growth Management Plan Update here.